Friday, January 25, 2013

Pentagon lifts ban on women in combat

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Pentagon formally announced on Thursday its decision to lift its ban on women in front-line combat roles, a move hailed by supporters as a historic step toward gender equality in America's armed forces after 11 years of non-stop war.

"The Department's goal in rescinding the rule is to ensure that the mission is met with the best-qualified and most capable people, regardless of gender," Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in a statement.

Panetta is due to address a Pentagon news conference in the coming hours.

(Reporting by Phil Stewart and David Alexander; Editing by Vicki Allen)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/pentagon-lifts-ban-women-combat-161333549.html

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Europe urges citizens to leave Libya's Benghazi

TRIPOLI/LONDON (Reuters) - European countries urged their nationals to leave the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi on Thursday, with Britain citing a "specific and imminent" threat to Westerners days after a deadly attack by Islamist militants in neighboring Algeria.

Officials declined to give details, but Britain has warned of a growing militant threat in North Africa, which Prime Minister David Cameron has called a "magnet for jihadists".

The call to leave Libya's second largest city irked Libyans keen to win foreign investment to rebuild a fractured infrastructure and boost the oil industry after the revolution which toppled Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

"We are now aware of a specific and imminent threat to Westerners in Benghazi, and urge any British nationals who remain there against our advice to leave immediately," the Foreign Office said in a statement.

Similar warnings came from Germany and the Netherlands.

They followed the deaths of at least 38 hostages in an attack on Algeria's In Amenas gas complex near the Libyan border, and the start of French military operations in Mali.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle described the situation in Benghazi, cradle of the uprising against Gaddafi, as "serious and delicate".

"The warning was made because of a series of bits of information. We have our reasons, but I would not like to speak of details. Security is the most important thing," he told reporters during a visit to Lisbon.

Few Westerners are believed to be in Benghazi, which has experienced a wave of violence against diplomats as well as military and police officers, including an attack in September that killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans.

A British embassy spokeswoman in Tripoli said the number of Britons in Benghazi was small, without specifying further.

U.S. and European sources downplayed the risk to Americans, saying the threats were explicitly directed against European nationals.

Libyan deputy Interior Minister Omar al-Khadrawi said there were no more than 20 British nationals in Benghazi and most worked at international schools.

The principal of the British School Benghazi said he was told to close the school after a personal call from the British ambassador in Tripoli.

"He called each of the British nationals and said to get out now," Randy Robinson, 53, told Reuters.

"He sounded urgent. He just said there are threats of attacks on foreign institutions run by foreigners and that schools and hospitals are on the list."

Robinson, a Canadian, said the ambassador did not say who the threats were from because "that would jeopardize their source". The school has six British nationals, four of whom, he said, were trying to leave Libya.

"I am going to stay for a while. We will try to get the school going with the staff we have left, but it is a day-by-day situation," he said.

Last week Italy suspended activity at its Benghazi consulate and withdrew staff after a gun attack on its consul.

"The situation in Cyrenaica (eastern Libya) is not just worrying, it is incredibly worrying," a Western diplomat said. "But in light of the events recently, this could be a precautionary measure."

With the country awash with weapons and its shaky nascent institutions struggling to rein in armed groups, Libyans are keen to ensure Western fears do not drag down its economy.

The bulk of Libya's oil wealth, around 80 percent, is located in the east of the country, but the oil installations are far from Benghazi and oil is not piped through there.

"The British ambassador told me about this decision yesterday and I told him to give me reasons for this fear, and he said we have threats and fears for our people there. I asked him for something written, and he still hasn't provided it," deputy Interior Minister Khadrawi told Reuters.

"They have the right to be fearful for their people and it is our duty to protect them and our citizens. The threats they are speaking of, we are taking seriously. The British decision should have been taken together with the Libyan government."

Cameron's spokesman batted away accusations that Britain's warnings undermined confidence in Libya after Gaddafi and said that "progress can, is being made in Libya".

A LOT OF THREATS

Benghazi has been the scene of power struggles between various armed Islamist factions. U.S. intelligence officials say Islamist militants with ties to al Qaeda affiliates were most likely involved in the deadly September 11 assault on the U.S. mission in the city, Libya's second biggest.

Libya, whose vast desert borders are hard to police, fears that France's military operation in Mali could fan Islamist flames at home, and Libya's foreign minister called for United Nations peacekeepers to be deployed in Mali to prevent uprooted fighters destabilizing countries nearby.

Security experts said the European warnings were probably in response to threats from groups angered by the French operation in Mali and inspired by the attack at In Amenas.

One European national security official said "a lot of folks" were doing "a lot of threatening".

George Joffe, Middle East expert at Cambridge University, said a direct link between Islamist groups in Libya and those behind the Algeria attack was unlikely.

"I'm quite certain these are groups working in sympathy with other groups elsewhere (but), I don't think for one minute that there are organizational or institutional links between groups in Mali or in Algeria and those in Libya," Joffe said.

"The threats almost certainly come from an extremist group ... basically based in Benghazi, but we have no idea of the seriousness of the threat, the ability of the group to carry out the threat or the intention of the group in making it."

Saad al-Saitim, deputy head of the Benghazi Local Council, said the warnings were a setback, inciting "more fear at a time when people need to stand with us".

"Following the Mali events, foreigners are worried and are taking precautionary steps. Benghazi hardly has any foreigners at the moment and few foreign consulates," he said.

British Airways said it would continue operating its thrice-weekly flights from London to the Libyan capital Tripoli. The next one is scheduled for Sunday.

Air Malta said it had cancelled Thursday's flights to Benghazi following Britain's warning.

(Additional reporting by Rhys Jones, Mark Hosenball, Ali Shuaib in Tripoli and Ghaith Shennib in Benghazi; Daniel Alvarenga in Lisbon; and Mark Hosenball in Washington; Editing by Myra MacDonald, Jon Hemming and Eric Beech)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/britain-urges-nationals-leave-libyas-benghazi-citing-threat-124722482.html

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Investing In The Recession - Business Insider

I?m just going to come out and say it, ok?? I miss the Great Recession already.

I miss it for two reasons: first as an investor and second as a human.

The Investment Side of the Great Recession

As an investor, the Great Recession represented the good times, now past.[1]

Recessions ? or at least their financial unfolding via changes in asset prices ? cause not only wealth destruction, but also wealth creation.? For investors[2] in particular, a recession is often necessary in order to deploy capital at attractive prices.

Warren Buffett famously gets irritated about the lack of investment opportunities in his annual Berkshire Hathaway letters during boom times, like his 1999 letter[3] and 2007 letter,[4] because prices of public securities outpace intrinsic value.? Conversely, he gets very busy and active buying companies when prices drop and other investors flee.? Recessions for Buffett, as well as for many investors, represent the best time to accumulate wealth.? Which is why he famously says:

?Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.?

Another famous value investor, Shelby Collum Davis,[5] said more pointedly:

?You make most of your money in a bear market.? You just don?t know it at the time.?

If you believe Buffett and Davis, as I do, then you too will think wistfully of the Great Recession because, as an investor, the good times are in the past.? Now, with US equity indexes up over 100% from their March 2009 lows, investing consists of purchasing expensive assets and hoping they get more expensive.? Which has a lot more to do with gambling than it does with investing.

The Human Side of the Great Recession

Of course this may sound awfully callous from a human perspective, and I don?t mean to diminish the real human suffering of the Great Recession.? In fact, on the contrary, it?s the humanity that emerged during the Great Recession that I want to call attention to, as the part I?m going to miss the most.

Remember when your 401K lost 5% of its value every month ? month after month after month ? between August 2008 and March 2009?? Remember that you just stopped regularly checking its value ? or any part of your supposed net worth ? by about December 2008, because the whole thing just became too painful to contemplate?

At that moment, falling into the Great Recession, we all confronted, in our own way, the painful reality that our human worth had to be something other than our financial net worth.? Because otherwise we just became half of who we were.

Remember when in the space of just a few short months either you ? or someone you knew well ? lost a job, a house, or a business?

As awful as that was, our collective acknowledgment of suffering changed the way we acted on a daily basis.? For people relatively well off, the new austerity forced a kind of back-to-basics approach to living.? Luxury consumption plummeted, and staycations soared in popularity, if only out of solidarity with those who suffered even more.

I personally lost money in the Great Recession.? But what turns out to be even more painful, as a fiduciary, is losing other people?s money.? I dreaded calling investors on the phone to report a loss, and I dreaded, worse yet, seeing them in person. ?To make it more painful for me, my investors, unfortunately, were often my friends and family. ?The thought of it kept me awake and tossing in bed in the 1-3am hours.? For a couple of years.? Not good times.

Would you like to know what reduced me tears, however?? It was the investors who told me it was going to be ok, that they still believed in me, and that the lost money didn?t mean they valued me less as a person.? Even as I write this now, it gets a little dusty in the room when I think of that.

There?s a human element that only reveals itself in the bad times.

Laissez Les Bons Temps Rouler

My sense is that sometime between Groundhog Day and Mardi Gras 2013, the Financial Infotainment Industrial Complex will peak out at the nation?s Great Recession shadow, and officially declare the long Winter finally over.

That declaration will signal it?s time for luxury living again and real vacations.? Masters of the Universe will know they can safely begin to channel their inner Patrick Bateman in public again.

In that smooth shift from Recovery to laissez les bons temps rouler I?m certain we?ll go back to checking our net worths in the mirror more often, and possibly our human worths less often.

But I hope we?ll hold on to the memory of what we had, and lost, and recovered, during the Great Recession.



[1] I acknowledge I?m being colloquial, not academic, about what I mean by a recession generally or the Great Recession in particular.? I don?t mean an economist?s definition of recession, which would refer to changes in GDP.? I also don?t mean to quibble about an US equity ?bear market,? as it?s been a few years since that occurred.? What I really mean is a holistic sense that, with unemployment below 8% nationally and the general level of stocks approaching their 2007 highs, the national mood has swung away from Recession and toward Recovery and I?m confident soon enough we?ll be in Boom Times.

[2] By ?investor? I mean as distinct from ?gambler,? which is what most of us do when we purchase public securities.

[3] Which I?ve helpfully linked to here, and would call your attention in particular to page 16, in which he anticipates the bursting of the tech bubble and the bursting of the equity bull market in general.

[4] Which is linked to here, and I?d call your attention to pages 18-20 in which Buffett tries to lower expectations for equity returns going forward.

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/investing-in-the-recession-2013-1

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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Analysis: No respite for euro zone in long rebalancing slog

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro zone crisis is entering a new, treacherous phase for governments, which can only cross their fingers that slow-burn reforms will pay off before voters get fed up with austerity and high unemployment.

On the face of it, 2013 should be a much less traumatic year than 2012 for the 17-nation single-currency area.

Financial conditions have improved enormously since the European Central Bank promised to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. Yields on the bonds of highly indebted peripheral countries have fallen sharply, bank funding strains have eased and stock markets have rallied.

Countries on the southern rim of the euro zone have made big strides in reducing their budget and trade deficits. They are no longer living way beyond their means. They have also introduced politically touchy structural reforms, notably to make their labor markets more flexible.

But demand is likely to remain weak, while unemployment, already at a record 11.8 percent, is forecast to rise further before it comes down. Recovery will be slow.

"They've taken the medicine, but they're not going to jump out of bed straight away," said Sebastian Barnes at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris.

"The problem is bridging the gap over the next two or three years when you're putting in place the right policies but they're not quite bearing fruit. So it's a question of managing public expectations," Barnes, adviser to the rich-country forum's chief economist, added.

RISKS REMAIN

Berenberg Bank said all forward-looking indicators point to a resumption of growth this spring, which should further reduce the euro zone's aggregate fiscal deficit to below 2.5 percent of GDP in 2013. It stood around 3.4 percent last year, down from 4.1 percent in 2011.

What's more, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece shrank their combined current account deficit to an estimated 1.5 percent of GDP in 2012 from 7 percent in 2008 and look set to balance their external accounts this year.

But Holger Schmieding, the bank's chief economist, said the single currency was not out of the woods yet.

"Despite impressive progress, serious risks remain. The euro zone needs growth in its major markets abroad and the political patience to stay the course at home," he said in a note.

A nagging worry is that the euro zone is making up for its economic mistakes through what Barnes calls "bad rebalancing".

So, while rising exports have played a role, the improvement in the periphery's current account has been achieved mainly by slashing imports.

And the reduction in relative wage costs needed to bring about ?internal devaluation' - the only devaluation available in the absence of exchange rate flexibility - has so far been engineered disproportionately through a rise in unemployment rather than wage moderation.

Ireland is a notable exception - as is Britain outside the euro zone - and Barnes said there were encouraging signs elsewhere, for example in Spain.

Italy, however, has barely touched its wage bargaining system. "The problem there is that wages have run ahead of productivity," he said.

LET'S GET STRUCTURAL

Gilles Moec, an economist with Deutsche Bank in London, also frets about Italy. Italy has its government deficit under control, but Moec sees signs of a growing ?employment overhang', linked to what he says is extremely slow financial rebalancing by the private sector since the onset of the crisis.

This is reflected in a rise in employee compensation in Italy as a percentage of corporate value-added to 57.7 percent from 52.5 percent in 2007.

By contrast, in Spain, where unemployment of 25 percent is more than twice as high as Italy's, the wage share dropped over the same period to 55.9 percent from 64.7 percent.

Rebalancing, in short, is far from complete. That is true for creditor countries, too. Germany's current account surplus is stuck at a stubbornly high 6 percent of GDP, reflecting weak investment and consumption.

Goldman Sachs has attempted to measure the progress being made in ironing out the imbalances by updating its estimates of the real exchange rate changes needed to bring countries' net debt positions - the result of accumulated annual current account deficits and surpluses - back into broad equilibrium.

In keeping with improvements in their current accounts, Greece, Portugal and Spain now require an inflation-adjusted depreciation that is about eight to 10 percentage points lower than two years ago, Goldman reckons.

Still, the remaining adjustment is huge - about 25-30 percent in the case of Spain and around 15-25 percent not only in Greece and Portugal but also in France, where employers and unions this month agreed on a package of labor reforms to restore competitiveness.

Germany, incidentally, requires a real appreciation of 15-25 percent.

Instead of higher unemployment and lower wages, structural reforms offer a less painful path to rebalancing, Goldman said.

Switching resources to exports from domestic sectors such as construction in Spain and public services in France would reduce the need for further real exchange rate depreciation.

"But adopting such reforms is not painless: the potential loss of political capital from vested groups standing to lose existing privileges can prevent politicians from implementing the necessary reforms. This remains true across most of the periphery, in France and Germany," wrote Goldman economist Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen.

Barnes with the OECD said all countries could do more, but the lack of reform in bigger economies, including France and Germany, was a particular concern.

The OECD's research suggests that, contrary to received wisdom, structural reforms can yield positive results within a year or two, notably by catalyzing investment and jobs. In turn, that can have an impact on public perceptions.

"I don't think in any of these countries the reforms are sufficient for what they should be achieving in the long run," Barnes said. "But just getting reform on the agenda and getting people to recognize that the system needs to change, and is going to change, is very important."

(Editing by Will Waterman)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-no-respite-euro-zone-long-rebalancing-slog-081211169--business.html

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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Scientists underestimated potential for Tohoku earthquake: Now what?

Jan. 23, 2013 ? The massive Tohoku, Japan, earthquake in 2011 and Sumatra-Andaman superquake in 2004 stunned scientists because neither region was thought to be capable of producing a megathrust earthquake with a magnitude exceeding ? 8.4.

Now earthquake scientists are going back to the proverbial drawing board and admitting that existing predictive models looking at maximum earthquake size are no longer valid.

In a new analysis published in the journal Seismological Research Letters, a team of scientists led by Oregon State University's Chris Goldfinger describes how past global estimates of earthquake potential were constrained by short historical records and even shorter instrumental records. To gain a better appreciation for earthquake potential, he says, scientists need to investigate longer paleoseismic records.

"Once you start examining the paleoseismic and geodetic records, it becomes apparent that there had been the kind of long-term plate deformation required by a giant earthquake such as the one that struck Japan in 2011," Goldfinger said. "Paleoseismic work has confirmed several likely predecessors to Tohoku, at about 1,000-year intervals."

The researchers also identified long-term "supercycles" of energy within plate boundary faults, which appear to store this energy like a battery for many thousands of years before yielding a giant earthquake and releasing the pressure. At the same time, smaller earthquakes occur that do not to any great extent dissipate the energy stored within the plates.

The newly published analysis acknowledges that scientists historically may have underestimated the number of regions capable of producing major earthquakes on a scale of Tohoku.

"Since the 1970s, scientists have divided the world into plate boundaries that can generate 9.0 earthquakes versus those that cannot," said Goldfinger, a professor in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. "Those models were already being called into question when Sumatra drove one stake through their heart, and Tohoku drove the second one.

"Now we have no models that work," he added, "and we may not have for decades. We have to assume, however, that the potential for 9.0 subduction zone earthquakes is much more widespread than originally thought."

Both Tohoku and Sumatra were written off in the textbooks as not having the potential for a major earthquake, Goldfinger pointed out.

"Their plate age was too old, and they didn't have a really large earthquake in their recent history," Goldfinger said. "In fact, if you look at a northern Japan seismic risk map from several years ago, it looks quite benign -- but this was an artifact of recent statistics."

Paleoseismic evidence of subduction zone earthquakes is not yet plentiful in most cases, so little is known about the long-term earthquake potential of most major faults. Scientists can determine whether a fault has ruptured in the past -- when and to what extent -- but they cannot easily estimate how big a specific earthquake might have been. Most, Goldfinger says, fall into ranges -- say, 8.4 to 8.7.

Nevertheless, that type of evidence can be more telling than historical records because it may take many thousands of years to capture the full range of earthquake behavior.

In their analysis, the researchers point to several subduction zone areas that previously had been discounted as potential 9.0 earthquake producers -- but may be due for reconsideration. These include central Chile, Peru, New Zealand, the Kuriles fault between Japan and Russia, the western Aleutian Islands, the Philippines, Java, the Antilles Islands and Makran, Pakistan/Iran.

Onshore faults such as the Himalayan Front may also be hiding outsized earthquakes, the researchers add. Their work was supported by the National Science Foundation.

Goldfinger, who directs the Active Tectonics and Seafloor Mapping Laboratory at Oregon State, is a leading expert on the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Northwest coast of North America. His comparative studies have taken him to the Indian Ocean, Japan and Chile, and in 2007, he led the first American research ship into Sumatra waters in nearly 30 years to study similarities between the Indian Ocean subduction zone and Cascadia.

Paleoseismic evidence abounds in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, Goldfinger pointed out. When a major offshore earthquake occurs, the disturbance causes mud and sand to begin streaming down the continental margins and into the undersea canyons. Coarse sediments called turbidites run out onto the abyssal plain; these sediments stand out distinctly from the fine particulate matter that accumulates on a regular basis between major tectonic events.

By dating the fine particles through carbon-14 analysis and other methods, Goldfinger and colleagues can estimate with a great deal of accuracy when major earthquakes have occurred. Over the past 10,000 years, there have been 19 earthquakes that extended along most of the Cascadia Subduction Zone margin, stretching from southern Vancouver Island to the Oregon-California border.

"These would typically be of a magnitude from about 8.7 to 9.2 -- really huge earthquakes," Goldfinger said. "We've also determined that there have been 22 additional earthquakes that involved just the southern end of the fault. We are assuming that these are slightly smaller -- more like 8.0 -- but not necessarily. They were still very large earthquakes that if they happened today could have a devastating impact."

Other researchers on the analysis include Yasutaka Ikeda of University of Tokyo, Robert S. Yeats of Oregon State University, and Junjie Ren, of the Chinese Seismological Bureau.

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Oregon State University.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Journal Reference:

  1. C. Goldfinger, Y. Ikeda, R. S. Yeats, J. Ren. Superquakes and Supercycles. Seismological Research Letters, 2013; 84 (1): 24 DOI: 10.1785/0220110135

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/top_news/~3/-OIRBTJHGkE/130123133901.htm

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Why You Should Care About Gut Health | Care2 Healthy Living

This week, I?ve been experimenting with taking lactase supplements before eating anything with lactose. Lactase is the enzyme that helps us digest lactose. I suspect I might have trouble digesting lactose so I thought I?d give it a shot. I?m happy to report ? so far so good. I was supposedly lactose intolerant for a year when I was seven (I know, it makes no sense) but the symptoms disappeared. It was like I had been touched by the healing hands of Aragorn. That?s a Lord of the Rings reference, by the way.

Apparently, I somehow overcame the intolerance. Or did I? I?ve started thinking lately that maybe I?ve had a slight lactose sensitivity for the last two decades but, because my symptoms have been relatively minor, I?ve been sweeping them under the rug. (I love dairy. Give me a pint of cookie dough ice cream and any movie starring Meg Ryan and everything is right with the world. I?m such a girl.)

Experimenting with lactase has shown me that gut health is super important! Aside from the fact that none of us would want to be this guy, who was reprimanded at work for ? wait for it ? farting too much, it?s important to take care of the gut for a lot of reasons. But it?s not something the medical community tells us to pay attention to. On the contrary, they give us medications and antibiotics that kill gut flora and then leave us hanging with no advice about how to repopulate the good bacteria. Sigh.

So, why should we care? What?s the big deal about gut health? Well, poor gut health can lead to digestive issues like gas, bloating, constipation, diharrea, nausea and heartburn. Symptoms made worse by that fact that so many of us eat large amounts of processed food ? and we eat it too quickly, in the car or at the desk. But what?s worse is that many health professionals are starting to believe that gut health may be related to more severe conditions, like allergies, arthritis, autoimmune diseases and mood disorders. This is serious stuff, kids!

So listen to Jamie Lee Curtis and eat your yogurt! The woman was in both Halloween AND Beverly Hills Chihuahua, I think she knows what she?s talking about. Though I?d recommend a higher quality yogurt than Activia. Fermented foods, kombucha and kefir are also among the many tasty foods that are great for the gut. But let?s take it up a notch. If you?re experiencing symptoms and you?re concerned, get tested for food intolerances. Give the doctor a jar of your poo and find out if you have healthy levels of gut bacteria. It?s an important but often overlooked contributor to our overall health ? so if you want to be proactive, make gut care a regular part of your health routine.

Related:
12 Ways to Supercharge your Digestion
Yoga Moves for Digestion

Source: http://www.care2.com/greenliving/why-you-should-care-about-gut-health.html

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